SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:

 
          Immediate Range   Larger Range 
USD/JPY    93.77-94.63      93.40-95.06 
EUR/USD   1.4251-1.4343    1.4199-1.4361 
AUD/USD   0.8335-0.8370    0.8214-0.8429 
NZD/USD   0.6829-0.6873    0.6813-0.6898 
GBP/USD   1.6273-1.6387    1.6030-1.6443 
USD/CHF   1.0580-1.0640    1.0561-1.0655 
USD/CAD   1.0774-1.0872    1.0717-1.0942 
EUR/JPY   133.93-135.29    132.88-135.85 
EUR/GBP   0.8724-0.8765    0.8703-0.8794 
 

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to range-trade. USD/JPY underpinned by broadly stronger USD undertone as oil prices retreated sharply from fresh 2009 highs (Nymex crude settled down $2.32 at $72.05/barrel), U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 54.1 in August (vs 47.0 forecast), S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes show U.S. home prices up 2.9% in 2Q for first gain in 3 years. USD/JPY also supported by USD demand for Japan import settlements; but gains tempered by Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields, unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades on diminished investor risk appetite after U.S. stocks pared early strong gains to close modestly higher at new highs for 2009 (DJIA up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.31%). Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan July provisional trade statistics, July corporate service price index, 1230 GMT U.S. July durable goods, 1400 GMT U.S. July new home sales, 1430 GMT U.S. Aug. 21 Energy Dept oil inventories, 1610 GMT Fed's Lockhart speaks. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold. Support at 93.77 (yesterday's low); breach would target 93.40 (Friday's low), then 93.07 (July 22 reaction low) and 92.69 (July 14 low). Resistance at 94.63 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 95.06 (Monday's high), then 95.15 (55-day moving average), 95.28 (Aug. 18 high) and 95.46 (Aug. 14 high).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Spotlight on 0800 GMT German August Ifo business climate index. EUR/USD undermined by stronger USD sentiment, unwinding of long-EUR carry trades on lower investor risk appetite, contagion from GBP weakness. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD neutral. Support at 1.4251 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4199 (Thursday's low), then 1.4109 (55-day moving average), 1.4081 (Aug. 19 low) and 1.4044 (Aug. 17 reaction low). Resistance at 1.4343 (hourly chart), then at 1.4361 (yesterday's high); breach would target 1.4375 (Friday's high), then 1.4414 (Aug. 7 high), 1.4446 (Aug. 5 top) and 1.4719 (Dec. 18 top).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. AUD/USD undermined by stronger USD sentiment, unwinding of long-AUD carry trades on weaker risk appetite, contagion from GBP weakness, softer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 3.86 at 257.36). But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie-U.S. yield gap. Data focus: 0100 GMT Australia August skilled vacancies index, 0130 GMT Australia 2Q construction work done. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD in bearish mode. Support at 0.8335 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8214 (Friday's low), then 0.8172 (Aug. 19 low) and 0.8153 (Aug. 17 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8370 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 0.8429 (Monday's high), then 0.8477 (Aug. 14 high) and 0.8519 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high).

NZD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting nearly 11-month high at 0.6898 yesterday, undermined by stronger USD sentiment, unwinding of long-NZD carry trades on waning risk appetite, contagion from GBP weakness. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi-U.S. yield advantage. NZD/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD neutral. Support at 0.6829 (yesterday's low), then at 0.6813 (Monday's high); breach would expose downside to 0.6711 (Friday's low), then 0.6661 (Aug. 19 low), 0.6639 (Aug. 17 low) and 0.6594 (Aug. 12 reaction low). Resistance at 0.6873 (hourly chart), then at 0.6898 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.6951 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high, coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci correction of 0.8213-0.4890 March 14 2008-March 4 2009 decline), then 0.7216 (Aug. 21, 2008 reaction high).

GBP/USD - to trade lower, undermined by stronger USD sentiment, weaker investor risk sentiment, concerns over high UK public debt, uncertainty over BOE's quantitative easing. GBP/USD daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 1.6273 (Aug. 17 reaction low); breach would expose downside to 1.6030 (July 13 low), then 1.5982 (July 8 reaction low) and 1.5956 (100-day moving average). Resistance at 1.6387 (hourly chart), then at 1.6443 (yesterday's high); breach would temper near-term negative bias, exposing upside to 1.6546 (Monday's high), then 1.6622 (Friday's reaction high) and 1.6664 (Aug. 13 reaction high).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with risks skewed higher, underpinned by broadly stronger USD undertone, fears of SNB's CHF-selling FX intervention. But USD/CHF gains tempered by unwinding of short-CHF carry trades on fading risk appetite. USD/CHF daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish at oversold. Resistance at 1.0640 (yesterday's high), then at 1.0655 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.0684 (Thursday's high), then 1.0766 (55-day moving average), and 1.0833 (Aug. 17 reaction high). Support at 1.0580 (hourly chart), then at 1.0561 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.0549 (Friday's low), then 1.0367 (Dec. 29 trough) and 1.0026 (July 15, 2008 reaction low).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher, underpinned by weaker commodity and oil prices, official concern about CAD strength - BOC Deputy Gov. Lane yesterday said possibility of persistent CAD strength posed "important risk" to economic outlook. USD/CAD daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, but MACD in bullish mode; bullish key-reversal-day pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 1.0872 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0942 (Friday's high), then 1.0994 (Thursday's high) and 1.1113 (Aug. 19 high). Support at 1.0774 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.0717 (yesterday's low), then 1.0674 (Aug. 6 low) and 1.0630 (Aug. 4 trough).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed lower, undermined by unwinding of carry trades amid weaker risk sentiment. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD in bearish mode. Support at 133.93 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 132.88 (Friday's low), then 132.16 (Aug. 19 reaction low), 132.04 (July 22 reaction low) and 131.47 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.00-138.70 July 8-Aug. 7 advance). Resistance at 135.29 (hourly chart), then at 135.85 (yesterday's high); breach would target 136.08 (Monday's high), then 136.45 (Aug. 14 high) and 137.85 (Aug. 13 reaction high).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting 11-week high of 0.8765 yesterday, underpinned by concerns over UK public debt and BOE's quantitative easing. EUR/GBP daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter overbought: suggests sideways or higher EUR/GBP trading near-term. Resistance at 0.8765 (yesterday's high); breach would target 0.8794 (June 8 high), then 0.8840 (downtrend line from Dec. 30 high of 0.9805) and 0.8869 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.8724 (hourly chart), then at 0.8703 (yesterday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 0.8648 (Monday's low), then 0.8571 (Thursday's low) and 0.8520 (Aug. 18 reaction low).

 
   -By Jerry Tan, Dow Jones Newswires; (65) 6415-4046; jerry.tan@dowjones.com 
 

Dow Jones CommentaryPlus Web site: http://www.djcommentaryplus.com/acs

(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=qfqGwzzRL07xEZkd3yNjoA%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 25, 2009 19:34 ET (23:34 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:

 
          Immediate Range   Larger Range 
USD/JPY    94.06-94.71      93.40-94.95 
EUR/USD   1.4275-1.4375    1.4199-1.4414 
AUD/USD   0.8322-0.8395    0.8214-0.8477 
NZD/USD   0.6780-0.6866    0.6711-0.6885 
GBP/USD   1.6465-1.6622    1.6417-1.6664 
USD/CHF   1.0549-1.0633    1.0367-1.0655 
USD/CAD   1.0761-1.0853    1.0674-1.0942 
EUR/JPY   134.62-136.45    132.88-137.85 
EUR/GBP   0.8632-0.8700    0.8571-0.8794 
 

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed higher after strong rebound from 4-week low of 93.40 Friday, underpinned by buying of yen-crosses on elevated risk appetite (investor fear gauge VIX down 0.32% at 25.01) as Wall Street hit fresh 2009 highs (DJIA closed up 1.67%, S&P up 1.86%) on surprise 7.2% surge in U.S. July existing home sales to nearly 2-year high 5.24 million, and cautiously hopeful remarks on U.S. economic recovery prospects from Fed chairman Bernanke. USD/JPY also supported by USD demand for Japan import settlements, higher U.S. Treasury yields; but gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. July Chicago Fed national activity index, 1600 GMT U.S. July Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turned bullish at oversold. Resistance at 94.71 (Friday's high); breach would target 94.95 (Wednesday's high, near 200-day moving average), then 95.28 (Tuesday's high, coinciding with 55-day moving average), 95.46 (Aug. 14 high) and 96.26 (100-day moving average). Support at 94.06 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 93.40 (Friday's low), then 93.07 (July 22 reaction low) and 92.69 (July 14 low).

EUR/USD - to trade with positive bias, underpinned by EUR demand for long-EUR carry trades on healthier risk appetite; upbeat euro-area data: euro-zone composite PMI rose to 50.0 from 47.0 (vs forecast for 48.3); German composite PMI rose to expansionary 54.2 in August from 49.0 in July; French composite PMI rose to 15-month high of 50.9 in August from 47.3 in July. But EUR/USD gains tempered by contagion from GBP weakness. Data focus: 0900 GMT EU June new industrial orders. EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics in bullish mode, MACD turning bullish; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 1.4367 Friday. Resistance at 1.4375 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.4414 (Aug. 7 high), then 1.4446 (Aug. 5 top) and 1.4719 (Dec. 18 top). Support at 1.4275 (hourly chart), then at 1.4199 (Thursday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 1.4100 (55-day moving average), then 1.4081 (Wednesday's low) and 1.4044 (Aug. 17 reaction low).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher, underpinned by AUD demand for long-AUD carry trades on increased risk appetite, firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 2.31 at 259.24). But AUD/USD gains tempered by contagion from GBP weakness. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia July new motor vehicles sales. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD in bearish mode. Resistance at 0.8395 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8477 (Aug. 14 high), then 0.8519 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high). Support at 0.8322 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.8214 (Friday's low), then 0.8172 (Wednesday's low), 0.8153 (Aug. 17 reaction low) and 0.8122 (July 29 reaction low, near 55-day moving average).

NZD/USD - to trade with positive bias, underpinned by NZD demand for long-NZD carry trades on higher risk appetite; but gains tempered by contagion from GBP weakness. NZD/USD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics in bullish mode, MACD turning bullish. Resistance at 0.6866 (Friday's high), then at 0.6885 (Aug. 14 high); breach would expose upside to 0.6951 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high, coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci correction of 0.8213-0.4890 March 14 2008-March 4 2009 decline), then 0.7216 (Aug. 21, 2008 reaction high). Support at 0.6780 (hourly chart), then at 0.6711 (Friday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 0.6661 (Tuesday and Wednesday's lows), then 0.6639 (Aug. 17 low) and 0.6594 (Aug. 12 reaction low).

GBP/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower, undermined by concerns over high UK public debt, uncertainty over BOE's quantitative easing. But GBP/USD losses tempered by positive risk sentiment from higher equities. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 1.6465 (hourly chart); then at 1.6417 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.6372 (Wednesday's low), then 1.6273 (Aug. 17 reaction low), 1.6030 (July 13 low) and 1.5982 (July 8 reaction low). Resistance at 1.6622 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.6664 (Aug. 13 reaction high), then 1.6719 (Aug. 10 high) and 1.6833 (Aug. 7 high).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting nearly 9-month low of 1.0549 Friday, undermined by broadly weaker USD undertone. But USD/CHF losses tempered by fears of SNB CHF-selling FX intervention, short-CHF carry trades on increased risk appetite. USD/CHF daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter oversold: suggests sideways or lower USD/CHF trading near-term. Support at 1.0549 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0367 (Dec. 29 trough), then 1.0026 (July 15, 2008 reaction low). Resistance at 1.0633 (hourly chart), then at 1.0655 (Friday's high); breach would nullify near-term negative bias, targeting 1.0684 (Thursday's high), then 1.0781 (Wednesday's high), 1.0801 (Tuesday's high) and 1.0833 (Aug. 17 reaction high).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with bearish bias, undermined by positive risk sentiment from higher equities, weaker global USD, stronger oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $0.98 at $73.89/barrel). But USD/CAD losses tempered by official concern about CAD strength. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada June retail sales. USD/CAD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish, positive MACD histogram bars contracting. Support at 1.0761 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0674 (Aug. 6 low), then 1.0630 (Aug. 4 trough). Resistance at 1.0853 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.0942 (Friday's high), then 1.0994 (Thursday's high) and 1.1113 (Wednesday's high).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed higher, underpinned by carry trades amid stronger investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD in bearish mode. Resistance at 136.45 (Aug. 14 high); breach would expose upside to 137.85 (Aug. 13 reaction high), then 138.70 (Aug. 7 peak). Support at 134.62 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 132.88 (Friday's low), then 132.16 (Wednesday's low), 132.04 (July 22 reaction low) and 131.47 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.00-138.70 July 8-Aug. 7 advance).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting 4-week high of 0.8699 Friday, underpinned by concerns over UK public debt and BOE's quantitative easing. EUR/GBP daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter overbought: suggests sideways or higher EUR/GBP trading near-term. Resistance at 0.8700 (July 22 reaction high, near 100-day moving average); breach would expose upside to 0.8794 (June 8 high), then 0.8851 (downtrend line from Dec. 30 high of 0.9805) and 0.8865 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.8632 (hourly chart); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 0.8571 (Thursday's low), then 0.8520 (Tuesday's reaction low) and 0.8483 (Aug. 7 low).

 
   -By Jerry Tan, Dow Jones Newswires; (65) 6415-4046; jerry.tan@dowjones.com 
 

Dow Jones CommentaryPlus Web site: http://www.djcommentaryplus.com/acs

(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=fhGHkD8fpD2g4ZgncfGDQQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 23, 2009 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:

 
          Immediate Range   Larger Range 
USD/JPY    94.06-94.71      93.40-94.95 
EUR/USD   1.4275-1.4375    1.4199-1.4414 
AUD/USD   0.8322-0.8395    0.8214-0.8477 
NZD/USD   0.6780-0.6866    0.6711-0.6885 
GBP/USD   1.6465-1.6622    1.6417-1.6664 
USD/CHF   1.0549-1.0633    1.0367-1.0655 
USD/CAD   1.0761-1.0853    1.0674-1.0942 
EUR/JPY   134.62-136.45    132.88-137.85 
EUR/GBP   0.8632-0.8700    0.8571-0.8794 
 

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed higher after strong rebound from 4-week low of 93.40 Friday, underpinned by buying of yen-crosses on elevated risk appetite (investor fear gauge VIX down 0.32% at 25.01) as Wall Street hit fresh 2009 highs (DJIA closed up 1.67%, S&P up 1.86%) on surprise 7.2% surge in U.S. July existing home sales to nearly 2-year high 5.24 million, and cautiously hopeful remarks on U.S. economic recovery prospects from Fed chairman Bernanke. USD/JPY also supported by USD demand for Japan import settlements, higher U.S. Treasury yields; but gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. July Chicago Fed national activity index, 1600 GMT U.S. July Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turned bullish at oversold. Resistance at 94.71 (Friday's high); breach would target 94.95 (Wednesday's high, near 200-day moving average), then 95.28 (Tuesday's high, coinciding with 55-day moving average), 95.46 (Aug. 14 high) and 96.26 (100-day moving average). Support at 94.06 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 93.40 (Friday's low), then 93.07 (July 22 reaction low) and 92.69 (July 14 low).

EUR/USD - to trade with positive bias, underpinned by EUR demand for long-EUR carry trades on healthier risk appetite; upbeat euro-area data: euro-zone composite PMI rose to 50.0 from 47.0 (vs forecast for 48.3); German composite PMI rose to expansionary 54.2 in August from 49.0 in July; French composite PMI rose to 15-month high of 50.9 in August from 47.3 in July. But EUR/USD gains tempered by contagion from GBP weakness. Data focus: 0900 GMT EU June new industrial orders. EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics in bullish mode, MACD turning bullish; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 1.4367 Friday. Resistance at 1.4375 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.4414 (Aug. 7 high), then 1.4446 (Aug. 5 top) and 1.4719 (Dec. 18 top). Support at 1.4275 (hourly chart), then at 1.4199 (Thursday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 1.4100 (55-day moving average), then 1.4081 (Wednesday's low) and 1.4044 (Aug. 17 reaction low).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher, underpinned by AUD demand for long-AUD carry trades on increased risk appetite, firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 2.31 at 259.24). But AUD/USD gains tempered by contagion from GBP weakness. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia July new motor vehicles sales. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD in bearish mode. Resistance at 0.8395 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8477 (Aug. 14 high), then 0.8519 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high). Support at 0.8322 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.8214 (Friday's low), then 0.8172 (Wednesday's low), 0.8153 (Aug. 17 reaction low) and 0.8122 (July 29 reaction low, near 55-day moving average).

NZD/USD - to trade with positive bias, underpinned by NZD demand for long-NZD carry trades on higher risk appetite; but gains tempered by contagion from GBP weakness. NZD/USD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics in bullish mode, MACD turning bullish. Resistance at 0.6866 (Friday's high), then at 0.6885 (Aug. 14 high); breach would expose upside to 0.6951 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high, coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci correction of 0.8213-0.4890 March 14 2008-March 4 2009 decline), then 0.7216 (Aug. 21, 2008 reaction high). Support at 0.6780 (hourly chart), then at 0.6711 (Friday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 0.6661 (Tuesday and Wednesday's lows), then 0.6639 (Aug. 17 low) and 0.6594 (Aug. 12 reaction low).

GBP/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower, undermined by concerns over high UK public debt, uncertainty over BOE's quantitative easing. But GBP/USD losses tempered by positive risk sentiment from higher equities. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 1.6465 (hourly chart); then at 1.6417 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.6372 (Wednesday's low), then 1.6273 (Aug. 17 reaction low), 1.6030 (July 13 low) and 1.5982 (July 8 reaction low). Resistance at 1.6622 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.6664 (Aug. 13 reaction high), then 1.6719 (Aug. 10 high) and 1.6833 (Aug. 7 high).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting nearly 9-month low of 1.0549 Friday, undermined by broadly weaker USD undertone. But USD/CHF losses tempered by fears of SNB CHF-selling FX intervention, short-CHF carry trades on increased risk appetite. USD/CHF daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter oversold: suggests sideways or lower USD/CHF trading near-term. Support at 1.0549 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0367 (Dec. 29 trough), then 1.0026 (July 15, 2008 reaction low). Resistance at 1.0633 (hourly chart), then at 1.0655 (Friday's high); breach would nullify near-term negative bias, targeting 1.0684 (Thursday's high), then 1.0781 (Wednesday's high), 1.0801 (Tuesday's high) and 1.0833 (Aug. 17 reaction high).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with bearish bias, undermined by positive risk sentiment from higher equities, weaker global USD, stronger oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $0.98 at $73.89/barrel). But USD/CAD losses tempered by official concern about CAD strength. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada June retail sales. USD/CAD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish, positive MACD histogram bars contracting. Support at 1.0761 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0674 (Aug. 6 low), then 1.0630 (Aug. 4 trough). Resistance at 1.0853 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.0942 (Friday's high), then 1.0994 (Thursday's high) and 1.1113 (Wednesday's high).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed higher, underpinned by carry trades amid stronger investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD in bearish mode. Resistance at 136.45 (Aug. 14 high); breach would expose upside to 137.85 (Aug. 13 reaction high), then 138.70 (Aug. 7 peak). Support at 134.62 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 132.88 (Friday's low), then 132.16 (Wednesday's low), 132.04 (July 22 reaction low) and 131.47 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.00-138.70 July 8-Aug. 7 advance).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting 4-week high of 0.8699 Friday, underpinned by concerns over UK public debt and BOE's quantitative easing. EUR/GBP daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter overbought: suggests sideways or higher EUR/GBP trading near-term. Resistance at 0.8700 (July 22 reaction high, near 100-day moving average); breach would expose upside to 0.8794 (June 8 high), then 0.8851 (downtrend line from Dec. 30 high of 0.9805) and 0.8865 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.8632 (hourly chart); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 0.8571 (Thursday's low), then 0.8520 (Tuesday's reaction low) and 0.8483 (Aug. 7 low).

 
   -By Jerry Tan, Dow Jones Newswires; (65) 6415-4046; jerry.tan@dowjones.com 
 

Dow Jones CommentaryPlus Web site: http://www.djcommentaryplus.com/acs

(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=fhGHkD8fpD2g4ZgncfGDQQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 23, 2009 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:

 
          Immediate Range   Larger Range 
USD/JPY    93.83-94.55      93.65-94.95 
EUR/USD   1.4199-1.4276    1.4091-1.4306 
AUD/USD   0.8267-0.8333    0.8172-0.8353 
NZD/USD   0.6723-0.6780    0.6661-0.6885 
GBP/USD   1.6447-1.6606    1.6372-1.6664 
USD/CHF   1.0615-1.0684    1.0580-1.0781 
USD/CAD   1.0861-1.0928    1.0811-1.0994 
EUR/JPY   133.75-134.62    133.40-134.80 
EUR/GBP   0.8614-0.8643    0.8571-0.8654 
 

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to range-trade, underpinned by buying of yen-crosses on increased risk appetite (investor fear gauge VIX down 4.46% at 25.09) as Wall Street gained overnight (DJIA up 0.76%, S&P up 1.09%), though caution over Chinese markets remains. U.S. stocks helped by improved Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index - rose to +4.2 in August from minus 7.5 in July for first positive reading since September 2008 (vs forecast for minus 0.2); 0.6% rise in Conference Board's July index of leading indicators for fourth straight monthly gain; though sentiment dented by surprise 15,000 increase in latest weekly jobless claims (vs forecast for 8,000 decline). USD/JPY also supported by USD demand for Japan import settlements; but gains tempered by Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields, positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 1400 GMT Fed's Bernanke speaks, 1400 GMT U.S. July existing home sales. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics bearish, but latter oversold, inside-day-range pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 94.55 (yesterday's high); breach would target 94.95 (Wednesday's high), then 95.28 (Tuesday's high, near 55-day moving average), 95.46 (Aug. 14 high) and 96.32 (100-day moving average). Support at 93.83 (yesterday's low); breach would target 93.65 (Wednesday's low), then 93.07 (July 22 reaction low) and 92.69 (July 14 low).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Spotlight on 0800 GMT euro zone August flash PMI. EUR/USD underpinned by EUR demand for long-EUR carry trades on healthier risk appetite. But EUR/USD gains tempered by contagion from GBP weakness, positions adjustment before weekend. Other data focus: 0730 GMT Germany August flash PMI. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Resistance at 1.4276 (yesterday's high); breach would target 1.4306 (Aug. 14 high), then 1.4327 (Aug. 13 high, coinciding with previous base set Aug. 6) and 1.4414 (Aug. 7 high). Support at 1.4199 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4091 (55-day moving average), then 1.4081 (Wednesday's low) and 1.4044 (Monday's reaction low).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. AUD/USD underpinned by AUD demand for long-AUD carry trades on increased risk appetite. But AUD/USD gains tempered by softer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 3.01 at 256.93), contagion from GBP weakness, positions adjustment before weekend. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Resistance at 0.8333 (yesterday's high); breach would target 0.8353 (61.8% Fibonacci correction of 0.8477-0.8153 Aug. 14-17 fall), then 0.8477 (Aug. 14 high) and 0.8519 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high). Support at 0.8267 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8172 (Wednesday's low), then 0.8153 (Monday's reaction low) and 0.8122 (July 29 reaction low, near 55-day moving average).

NZD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher, underpinned by NZD demand for long-NZD carry trades on higher risk appetite; but gains tempered by contagion from GBP weakness, positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 0300 GMT NZ July credit card statistics. NZD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 0.6780 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.6885 (Aug. 14 high), then 0.6951 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high, coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci correction of 0.8213-0.4890 March 14 2008-March 4 2009 decline). Support at 0.6723 (yesterday's low); breach would target 0.6661 (Tuesday and Wednesday's lows), then 0.6639 (Monday's low) and 0.6594 (Aug. 12 reaction low).

GBP/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower, undermined by concerns over high UK public debt - public sector borrowing in July soared to GBP8 billion, much higher than forecast for just GBP200 million; uncertainty over BOE's quantitative easing. But GBP/USD losses tempered by positive risk sentiment from higher equities, surprise 0.4% on-month gain in UK July retail sales (vs forecast for no change), positions adjustment before weekend. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 1.6447 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.6372 (Wednesday's low), then 1.6273 (Monday's reaction low), 1.6030 (July 13 low) and 1.5982 (July 8 reaction low). Resistance at 1.6606 (Aug. 14 and yesterday's highs); breach would target 1.6664 (Aug. 13 reaction high), then 1.6719 (Aug. 10 high) and 1.6833 (Aug. 7 high).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with bearish bias. USD/CHF undermined by broadly weaker USD undertone, brightening medium-term Swiss economic growth forecasts as ZEW survey of country's economic expectations showed headline balance rose to 18.6 in August from zero in July. But USD/CHF losses tempered by fears of SNB CHF-selling FX intervention, short-CHF carry trades on increased risk appetite, positions adjustment before weekend. USD/CHF daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 1.0615 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.0580 (Aug. 7 low), then 1.0560 (Aug. 3 reaction low) and 1.0367 (Dec. 29 trough). Resistance at 1.0684 (yesterday's high); breach would nullify near-term negative bias, exposing upside to 1.0781 (Wednesday's high), then 1.0801 (Tuesday's high) and 1.0833 (Monday's reaction high).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with bearish bias, undermined by positive risk sentiment from higher equities, weaker global USD, stronger-than-expected Canada June wholesale sales (up 0.6% for first rise in 9 months, vs forecast for +0.2%). But USD/CAD losses tempered by softer commodity prices, official concern about CAD strength, positions adjustment before weekend. USD/CAD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish, positive MACD histogram bars contracting; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 1.0882 yesterday; negative directional indicator (-DI) of DMI crossed above positive directional indicator (+DI). Support at 1.0861 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.0811 (Aug. 14 low), then 1.0790 (Aug. 13 reaction low) and 1.0674 (Aug. 6 low). Resistance at 1.0928 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.0994 (yesterday's high), then 1.1113 (Wednesday's high), 1.1124 (Monday's high) and 1.1177 (50% Fibonacci correction of 1.1724-1.0630 July 8-Aug. 4 decline, near 55-day moving average).

EUR/JPY - to trade with risks skewed higher, underpinned by carry trades amid stronger investor risk appetite; but gains tempered by positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish near oversold. Resistance at 134.62 (yesterday's high), then at 134.80 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 135.53 (previous base set Aug. 13), then 136.45 (Aug. 14 high) and 137.85 (Aug. 13 reaction high). Support at 133.75 (hourly chart), then at 133.40 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 132.16 (Wednesday's low), then 132.04 (July 22 reaction low) and 131.47 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.00-138.70 July 8-Aug. 7 advance).

EUR/GBP - to trade with risks skewed higher, underpinned by concerns over UK public debt and BOE's quantitative easing. EUR/GBP daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode; 5- & 15-day moving averages rising. Resistance at 0.8643 (yesterday's high, then at 0.8654 (Aug. 14 reaction high); breach would target 0.8687 (July 27 reaction high), then 0.8700 (July 22 reaction high, coinciding with 100-day moving average), 0.8794 (June 8 high) and 0.8857 (downtrend line from Dec. 30 high of 0.9805, near 200-day moving average). Support at 0.8614 (hourly chart), then at 0.8571 (yesterday's low); breach would nullify near-term positive bias, exposing downside to 0.8520 (Tuesday's reaction low).

 
   -By Jerry Tan, Dow Jones Newswires; (65) 6415-4046; jerry.tan@dowjones.com 
 

Dow Jones CommentaryPlus Web site: http://www.djcommentaryplus.com/acs

(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 20, 2009 19:37 ET (23:37 GMT)

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